Global Overview of Major Violent Conflicts -- July 2025

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July 14, 2025

Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the most significant violent conflicts occurring around the world as of July 2025. Each section details the nature of the conflict, the key actors involved, the regions affected, and ongoing or prospective peace efforts and resolutions. Conflicts covered include state-on-state wars, multi-front regional wars, insurgencies, intercommunal violence, and the activities of non-state armed groups and transnational criminal organizations. The report also explores overarching themes such as the evolving nature of warfare, the role of local governance, and the challenges of mediation under Chapter VI of the UN Charter.

Russo-Ukrainian War
Israel’s Multi-Front Conflict
Iran-Israel Regional Tensions and Proxy Warfare
Syrian Conflict and HTS Control in Damascus
Yemen Conflict and Houthi Insurgency
Myanmar Civil Conflict and Resistance Groups
Sahel Crisis: Insurgencies in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger
Sudan Conflict and State Fragmentation
Pakistan Internal Conflict: TTP and Baloch Insurgency
Afghanistan Insurgency and Refugee Returnee Crisis
South Sudan Intercommunal Violence and Peace Cooperatives
Great Lakes Conflicts: DRC’s M23 and Regional Proxies
Horn of Africa Conflicts: Ethiopia’s Tigray and Somalia’s Al-Shabab
Colombia Armed Groups and the Total Peace Strategy
Mexico Cartel Violence and Shifting Gang Wars
UN and Regional Peace Efforts
Cross-Cutting Observations and Challenges
Conclusion

1. Russo-Ukrainian War

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict has become one of the world’s most lethal and geopolitically consequential state-on-state wars. Hostilities continue along multiple axes, as Russia seeks to secure and expand control in eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine mounts both defensive and counteroffensive operations supported by Western military aid.

Battle Intensity: Russian forces conducted the largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of 3–4 July 2025, launching over 330 Shahed drones, decoy drones, and ballistic and cruise missiles, primarily targeting Kyiv and critical infrastructure.
Territorial Dynamics: Ukraine reported that Russian forces achieved steady gains in northern Sumy Oblast and pushed toward Kherson and Kharkiv regions, while Ukraine’s counteroffensive advanced near Kupyansk and around Kherson, leading to localized shifts in frontlines.
Humanitarian Impact: Civilian casualties continue to mount, with 63% more monthly battles compared to 2023, and critical damage to energy, transport, and industrial facilities, emphasizing the war’s impact on the civilian population and national economy.
Peace Prospects: Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Ukrainian President Zelensky advocate for renewed negotiations, but Russia’s maximalist demands—“denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine—amount to regime change, making direct talks difficult.

2. Israel’s Multi-Front Conflict (Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon)

Beginning with Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, followed by Israel’s prolonged military operations in Gaza, the conflict has expanded to West Bank crackdowns and a major offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, creating a multi-front confrontation.

Gaza Campaign: Israel’s intensive air and ground operations in Gaza have resulted in over 56,000 Palestinian deaths and massive infrastructure destruction. Despite significant leadership losses, Hamas retains guerrilla capabilities and continues low-intensity operations from concealed positions.
West Bank Operations: Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted thousands of raids and arrests in Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, and Tubas refugee camps using drones, airstrikes, and anti-tank weapons. Armed groups linked to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas have responded with attacks on settlements and military checkpoints.
Lebanon Offensive: From mid-September to late November 2024, Israel launched over 5,700 airstrike events in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut. Ground incursions reached the Litani River, yet Hezbollah’s resilience and political influence remain intact.
Peace Prospects: A fragile truce in Lebanon holds under terms that include Hezbollah’s redeployment and the Lebanese Armed Forces’ presence south of the Litani, but the absence of a political settlement and ongoing occupation concerns in Gaza and the West Bank cast doubt on lasting peace.

3. Iran-Israel Regional Tensions and Proxy Warfare

The intensifying rivalry between Iran and Israel has become a transnational conflict, involving direct strikes, proxy engagements, and cyber operations.

Israel’s Operation Rising Lion: On 13 June 2025, IDF airstrikes targeted Iran’s nuclear and military sites, including Natanz, destroying over a third of Iran’s missile launchers. Iran responded with missile and drone barrages against Israeli cities, including Rishon LeZion and Nazareth, in solidarity with Gaza operations.
Proxy Fronts: Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi militias have carried out attacks on Israeli and US forces, while Israel has struck arms convoys, command centers, and infrastructure in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, illustrating a multi-theater confrontation.
Cyber and Covert Warfare: This conflict also includes cyberattacks such as Stuxnet against Iranian nuclear facilities in 2010 and ongoing targeted assassinations of nuclear scientists and commanders.
International Mediation: Regional diplomacy—Kuwaiti, Omani and Russian mediation—and US assurances under the renewed “America First” doctrine shape the potential for de-escalation, but core demands on both sides remain irreconcilable.

4. Syrian Conflict and HTS Control in Damascus

Despite a formal ceasefire, Syria remains fragmented among the Assad government, Kurdish forces, Islamic State remnants, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which seized Damascus in December 2024.

HTS Takeover: HTS, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, consolidated control over Damascus and parts of southern Syria on 8 December 2024, exploiting the weakened Iranian-Russian axis and rebel alliances, creating a new power center in the capital region.
Government Response: President Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, has launched air and drone strikes against HTS positions, while Kurdish-led SDF controls the northeast in an uneasy truce with Damascus.
Humanitarian Crisis: Over 13 years of war have displaced 14 million people, with 20% of Syrian children out of school and widespread destruction of hospitals and infrastructure requiring massive reconstruction.
Peace Prospects: UN-led political talks in Geneva remain deadlocked. Frontline stalemates and proxy competition underscore the fragmentation, with no clear path to a unified state.

5. Yemen Conflict and Houthi Insurgency

Yemen’s multifaceted war pits the Iranian-backed Houthi movement against the internationally-recognized government backed by a Saudi-led coalition and the UAE.

Red Sea Insurgency: Since late 2023, the Houthis have attacked over 110 merchant vessels with missiles and drones to protest Israel’s Gaza war, prompting US-UK airstrikes in January 2024 and disrupting 15% of global maritime trade. Efforts to escort ships through the Houthi-controlled corridor remain tenuous.
Renewed Battles: Fighting in Marib, Taiz, and Hudaydah continues between Houthis and government forces, with over 400,000 displaced and 23 million people requiring humanitarian aid in 2025.
Political Maneuvers: UN-brokered ceasefires have collapsed, while Saudi-Iranian rapprochement—mutual embassy reopenings in April 2023—offers limited hope for a negotiated settlement.
Peace Prospects: A stalled political process under Yemen’s Presidential Council and Security Council sanctions on Houthis underscore the region’s protracted impasse.

6. Myanmar Civil Conflict and Resistance Groups

Myanmar’s 2021 military coup precipitated a national insurgency, with resistance groups making significant gains against junta forces and facing Chinese diplomatic pressure.

Decentralized Resistance: The National Unity Government’s People’s Defense Forces, allied with Ethnic Armed Organizations like the Brotherhood Alliance and Kachin Independence Army, have captured over 277 towns in the first eleven months of 2024, more than quadrupling 2023 figures.
Junta Counteroffensives: The military activated conscription laws and deployed poorly trained civilians, conducting indiscriminate airstrikes on populated areas, especially in Sagaing, leading to widespread atrocities and refugee flows into India and Thailand.
China’s Role: Beijing pressured certain EAOs to cease attacks and proposed joint security companies. China’s strategic calculus hinges on protecting its Belt and Road investments, complicating resistance efforts.
Peace Prospects: Splintered TPLF factions and stalled peace talks with the military, alongside ongoing ethnic violence, underscore the deep fragmentation and absence of a unified negotiation process.

7. Sahel Crisis: Insurgencies in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger

Long-standing jihadist insurgencies affiliated with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province have spread across the central Sahel, destabilizing Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

Rising Violence Zones: Central Mali’s Mopti and Segou regions and Burkina Faso’s Boucle du Mouhoun saw record civilian fatalities and large-scale offensives by JNIM’s Maçina Liberation Front, targeting state forces, Volunteers for Defence of the Homeland (VDP), and civilians, killing hundreds in massacres of villages like Barsalogho and Nassougou.
Emerging Fronts: A Maçina-linked faction in southwestern Burkina prevented aid convoys and attempted to expand into northern Côte d’Ivoire; JNIM attacked Niamey suburbs in October 2024, demonstrating operational reach around the capital.
IS Sahel Expansion: IS Sahel consolidated control of western Niger near Ménaka, Niger–Mali border, increasing attacks in Tillaberi and infiltrating Kebbi and Sokoto states in Nigeria, prompting cross-border airstrikes and refugee flows.
Peace Prospects: Regional ceasefires brokered by Oman and Sino-Saudi-Iranian normalization offer some hope. However, escalating AQIM-linked violence, local insurgencies, and military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad hamper cohesive counterinsurgency efforts.

8. Sudan Conflict and State Fragmentation

Since April 2023, Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), resulting in massive casualties, displacement, and foreign interventions.

Widening War: Over 150,000 killed and 14 million displaced into Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan and within Sudan amid fierce battles in Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan, and eastern Sudan. SAF and RSF use airstrikes, drone attacks, and brutal ground offensives.
Foreign Involvement: Saudi Arabia and Egypt back SAF; UAE and the RSF’s Hemedti coordinate on gold smuggling; Iran supplies drones to SAF; Russia seeks a Red Sea naval base, while Turkey and Qatar engage in mediation.
Peace Prospects: Multiple ceasefire attempts have collapsed; UN Security Council’s high-level open debate on peaceful dispute settlement (Chapter VI) in July 2025 highlights the need for renewed collective diplomacy, but divisions over sovereignty and early-warning hinder consensus.

9. Pakistan Internal Conflict: TTP and Baloch Insurgency

Pakistan’s political upheaval since the February 2024 elections and rising militancy by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatists have fueled a new wave of violence.

Post-Election Instability: After political deadlock and allegations of military manipulation, TTP and Baloch militants escalated attacks on security forces, with ACLED recording a 95% rise in Fano–security-force clashes in Amhara and a 20 % spike in political violence against candidates during 2024 elections.
Baloch Insurgency: In Balochistan, separatist attacks doubled, targeting punjabi labourers, Chinese nationals, and military posts, heightening demands for political dialogue over a “comprehensive military operation” from Islamabad.
TTP Resurgence: TTP has reestablished control in North and South Waziristan, launching mass kidnappings and attacks on off-duty officers, while ISKP and splinter HGB engage in sectarian and territorial assaults.
Peace Prospects: Islamabad’s crackdown may provoke further backlash; dialogues remain stalled, and cross-border TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan persist under Taliban acquiescence, complicating prospects for a negotiated settlement.

10. Afghanistan Insurgency and Refugee Returnee Crisis

Despite US-backed counter-terrorism successes, Afghanistan remains locked in a persistent insurgency by the Taliban’s Islamic State–affiliated Khorasan Province (ISK) and faces a massive humanitarian and returnee crisis.

Humanitarian Needs: An estimated 22.9 million people (over 50% of the population) require humanitarian assistance in 2025 amid economic collapse, UN sanctions cuts, and restrictive governance under the de facto Taliban administration; 3.5 million acutely malnourished children need treatment.
Explosive Hazards: Civilian deaths from IEDs and UXO remain high, with children most affected; 4.4 million people will require mine action services due to widespread contamination by legacy conflict munitions in 2025.
Refugee Returns: Nearly one million Afghans have been forced from Pakistan by the Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan, returning to a weakened state with limited services, struggling to reintegrate and facing risks of secondary displacement in urban centers lacking shelter and livelihoods.
Peace Prospects: No formal negotiations under Chapter VI; Taliban-sponsored governance remains unrecognized internationally, complicating coordinated UN mediation or reintegration initiatives.

11. South Sudan Intercommunal Violence and Peace Cooperatives

South Sudan’s fragile peace is challenged by intercommunal violence, yet grassroots agricultural cooperatives offer pathways to economic resilience and reconciliation.

Cooperative Success: A maize and sorghum cooperative in Central Equatoria expanded from 20 to 150 members within a year, improving incomes and food security; cooperatives provide democratic governance and reduce youth recruitment into violence.
Peace through Livelihoods: Cooperatives enhance rural stability by offering employment alternatives to young people, reducing armed recruitment; the approach aligns with peacebuilding theory emphasizing local agency and economic opportunity.
Challenges: Infrastructure deficits, cold chain shortages, and lack of access to credit hamper scaling; local coordination between government and cooperatives remains weak, requiring policy support to integrate agricultural extension and market access.
Peace Prospects: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and local ministries support co-ops, yet sustainable conflict resolution requires linking cooperatives with broader state-building and justice efforts to address root grievances.

12. Great Lakes Conflicts: DRC’s M23 and Regional Proxies

Eastern DRC’s volatile environment features the M23 rebellion, backed by Rwanda, clashing with Congolese and allied forces, displacing civilians and delaying peace accords.

M23 Gains: Since January 2025, M23 has captured Goma and Bukavu, forcing FARDC and Wazalendo to endure coordinated cordon-and-search operations and mass arrests. Over 1,000 civilian detentions and forced repatriations to Rwanda have been documented, constituting potential war crimes and violations of international law.
Government Response: FARDC and regional forces (UPDF, SNDF) conduct counter-offensives under Operation Shujaa, recapturing strategic hills in Walikale and Kalehe territories but struggling to reverse M23’s territorial entrenchment.
Diplomacy: A US-mediated Washington Declaration of Principles (25 April 2025) and a formal peace agreement (27 June 2025) pledge mutual withdrawal of support for proxies, but renewed hostilities immediately following signings highlight the deal’s fragility and distrust.
Peace Prospects: ICGLR’s Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism meetings with M23 in Goma (3 June 2025) drew DRC condemnation; the African Court’s 26 June ruling affirmed jurisdiction over Rwanda’s alleged violations; UNHCR has overseen mixed repatriations, yet a durable settlement remains elusive.

13. Horn of Africa Conflicts: Ethiopia’s Tigray and Somalia’s Al-Shabab

13.1 Ethiopia’s Tigray Conflict

After a brutal two-year war (2020–22), Tigray remains politically fractured, with rival TPLF factions vying for control of the interim regional administration under China-brokered Pretoria Agreement.

Factions at War: Security forces aligned with President Getachew Reda’s interim administration and those loyal to former TPLF President Debretsion Gebremichael have engaged in forceful takeovers of local councils in Southeast and Central Tigray, seizing administrative seals and detaining local officials in Adi Gudem and Mekelle, thwarting the 2025 election timeline.
Humanitarian Impact: Ongoing seizures and checkpoints disrupt aid delivery, intensify displacement, and hamper public services. UNAMA reports over 850 civilian casualties from IEDs and ERW since 2023, with food, health, and WASH services severely constrained by DfA restrictions on female aid workers and UN funding cuts.
Peace Prospects: Political deadlock and dual TPLF administrations, combined with Eritrea’s suspected support for Debretsion forces and Chinese pressure on warlords, undercut Pretoria Agreement implementation. External mediation by IGAD and African Union may help, but trust deficits and competing sovereignty claims hinder progress.

13.2 Somalia’s Al-Shabab Insurgency

Despite AMISOM’s withdrawal in late 2021, Al-Shabab continues to wage an insurgency against the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).

Arms Embargo and Sanctions: UN Security Council Resolution 2776 (3 March 2025) renewed an arms embargo on Al-Shabab until 13 December 2025, tightened charcoal and IED controls, and mandated maritime interdictions to cut off funding and materiel flows. The sanctions exclude deliveries to Somali security forces and vetted authorities, aiming to isolate the insurgents while supporting stabilization forces.
Attack Profile: Al-Shabab carried out over 150 attacks since January 2025, including large-scale bombings in Mogadishu, targeted assassinations of government officials, and ambushes on AMISOM-ATMIS convoys in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions.
Government Response: The SFG and ATMIS launched intensified joint operations in Galmudug and Jubaland, recapturing key towns like Buloburde and Barire, though Al-Shabab’s mobile, decentralized cells continue guerrilla tactics.
Peace Prospects: Negotiations under Chapter VI mechanisms remain absent, despite pressure from IGAD and Gulf mediators. Without opening political space for dialogue, Al-Shabab’s motivations remain unaddressed, perpetuating the insurgency.

14. Colombia Armed Groups and the Total Peace Strategy

President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” policy aims to negotiate simultaneously with ELN, FARC dissidents, and paramilitaries, but progress has been mixed.

Negotiations: Three main talks with ELN, EMC, and Segunda Marquetalia began in 2023–24 and have achieved limited ceasefires, mass hostage releases, and exploratory agreements. However, all negotiations face periodic breakdowns and resumption of hostilities over trust deficits and unclear mandates.
Local Agreements: In Medellín, Y Achura and Triana gangs agreed truces in early 2024, leading to a 20% drop in homicides, yet violence between criminal groups for extortion and trafficking has resurged, highlighting the need for robust exit strategies from criminal governance.
Criminal Ecosystems: JNIM’s presence along Colombia’s Pacific coast and border areas underscores how armed governance and illicit economies shape conflict dynamics.
Peace Prospects: Lessons emphasize the importance of sequencing, timing, HPO frameworks, and engaging local authorities to ensure durable truces and build state capacity to fill criminal governance gaps.

15. Mexico Cartel Violence and Shifting Gang Wars

Mexico’s drug war sees a surge in violence as criminal groups adapt remote-violence tactics and face internal splits, swelling conflict into new states.

Sinaloa Cartel Rift: The 2024 arrest of “El Mayo” led to an internecine war between Los Chapitos and Los Mayitos, causing daily shootings, lynchings, and public displays of violence such as seven bodies found on highways in Michoacán in June 2025 .
Cartel Dynamics: CJNG intensifies battles against Sinaloa factions in Guanajuato and Michoacán and expands into Querétaro and Tabasco. CJNG‐faction clashes with Gulf-linked groups in Veracruz and Chiapas over trafficking routes exacerbate insecurity.
Remote Warfare: Cartels deploy homemade bombs, grenades, landmines, improvised explosive devices delivered by drones, and grenade-launching drones to attack rivals and security forces. Homicides dropped under “abrazos, no balazos,” but remote violence rose by 100% in 2024 compared to 2023, particularly in Guanajuato and Guerrero.
Peace Prospects: Sheinbaum’s government signals a harder line than her predecessor, with increased National Guard deployments and high-profile arrests. US pressure under Trump’s administration may push for more aggressive operations, yet militarization risks civilian casualties and human rights violations.

16. UN and Regional Peace Efforts

International and regional bodies have sought to mediate and support peaceful dispute settlement and stabilization.

UN Chapter VI Mechanisms: The Security Council’s July 2025 high-level debate on “Promoting international peace through multilateralism and peaceful settlement” underscores the need to leverage Chapter VI tools—negotiation, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, and ICJ referrals—to resolve interstate and intrastate disputes.
African Union Initiatives: AU-led mediation in Sudan and DRC, and the 2025 Peacebuilding Architecture Review call for aligning UN Security Council and Peacebuilding Commission efforts to prevent conflicts upstream.
Regional Frameworks: The G5 Sahel Force, Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) coordinate military and diplomatic responses in West and East Africa, applying tailored regional dispute-settlement mechanisms.
Mediation Imperatives: Effective mediation requires timing, sequencing, and addressing hybrid political orders. The UN’s good offices have yet to produce breakthrough outcomes in Sudan, Myanmar, or Yemen, highlighting the challenge of impartial mediation in proxy or civil war contexts.

17. Cross-Cutting Observations and Challenges

Evolution of Violence: Conflicts increasingly feature remote violence and hybrid governance, requiring expanded metrics beyond homicides to measure peacebuilding impacts.
Local-National Coordination: National agendas must integrate local authorities and community structures to design context-sensitive negotiation strategies and build local institutional capacity.
Hybrid Political Orders (HPOs): Recognize spaces where state, criminal, and rebel governance overlap—essential for informed peace and security interventions.
Timing and Sequencing: Negotiation ripeness and the order of conflict-reduction measures (ceasefires, humanitarian access, disarmament) determine progress; mismatched sequencing often favors armed actors consolidating control.
Transnational Influences: Proxy dynamics (Rwanda-DRC, Iran-Israel-Yemen, Gulf-South Sudan) intensify conflicts, complicating impartial mediation and requiring coordinated, multilateral frameworks for dispute settlement.

Conclusion

The global conflict landscape as of July 2025 remains deeply complex and interconnected. While high-level peace agreements and mediation efforts continue, persistent violence across multiple fronts highlights the limitations of purely military or diplomatic solutions. Sustainable peace requires integrating local governance insights, addressing criminal and rebel governance as hybrid political orders, and adhering to principled timing and sequencing for negotiations under Chapter VI of the UN Charter. Cross-border tensions, proxy warfare, and burgeoning remote-violence tactics demand innovative, inclusive, and coordinated responses that empower communities, reinforce state legitimacy, and hold all parties accountable to the rule of law. Only by reconciling these multiple dimensions—political, economic, social, and moral—can the prospect of lasting peace be realized.