Iceland Volcano: Increased Likelihood of an Eruption

Iceland Met Office

Updated 12 January 2026

Key points

• Magma accumulation continues beneath Svartsengi
• Continued increased likelihood of a magma intrusion and an eruption
• Earthquake activity remains low in the area
• Hazard assessment remains unchanged until 3 February, unless activity changes
• Magma accumulation

Land uplift and magma accumulation at Svartsengi continue at a steady rate, similar to recent weeks. According to modelling results, just over 19 million cubic metres of magma have now accumulated beneath Svartsengi since the last eruption in July. The likelihood of a magma intrusion and an eruption therefore continues to increase, but the timing of the next eruption remains uncertain and may range over several months.

Results of model calculations showing the total volume for each magma accumulation period at Svartsengi since December 2023. The orange bars show the total volume accumulated between magma intrusions or eruptions. The red bar represents the volume accumulated since the July eruption to the present day. The grey shaded area indicates the range of inflation volumes which accumulated beneath Svartsengi prior to triggering the last 5 events.

Earthquake activity

Earthquake activity in the area remains low.

Hazard assessment

The Icelandic Meteorological Office's hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 3 February. The Office continues to closely monitor developments and will update the assessment if changes occur in the activity.

Weather conditions may affect monitoring capability in the coming days

The weather forecast for the coming days predicts ongoing strong southerly winds on the Reykjanes Peninsula, accompanied by rain over the next three days. These conditions are likely to affect monitoring, particularly visibility and the sensitivity of fibre-optic cable, seismic, and real-time GPS observations. The Icelandic Met Office will continue to closely monitor developments around the clock.