Revolution At The Fed (Michael Mandel and Peter Coy)

Created by : Francis Goodwin View profile

Bernanke reinvents central bank to avoid catastrophe

(Business Week) -- The current financial crisis -- perhaps the biggest since the Great Depression -- has turned Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke into a reluctant revolutionary. The quiet academic who wanted to make the post of Fed chairman less heroic is leading a dramatic expansion of the central bank's role. In the process, he is setting the stage for the next big boom -- or bubble.

In the short run, Bernanke is waging a war to keep the financial markets from collapsing. The biggest move so far: On Sunday, Mar. 16, the Fed brokered the fire sale of troubled investment bank Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase and announced that it would be willing to lend directly to major Wall Street brokers, which have never before had access to loans from the central bank.

The two moves represented a new level of direct Fed involvement in the financial markets and made it clear that Bernanke would take any step needed to prevent a financial catastrophe. These maneuvers should work, says Julian Jessop, chief international economist of London-based research firm Capital Economics. "At the end of the day, the Fed can provide a lot of support," he says. "It certainly won't prevent a sharp downturn, but it should prevent a debt deflation spiral."

At the same time, by stepping in so aggressively, Bernanke is pouring an enormous slug of money into the financial system. To be sure, its full impact won't be felt right away, because banks are reluctant to lend and consumers are afraid to borrow. Indeed, consumer spending is likely to lag, leading to job cuts in coming months and a deepening of the recession.

Eventually, though, the Fed's stimulus will show up as some combination of stronger economic growth and higher asset prices. It also could boost inflation, further eroding the value of the dollar and raising the risk of a run on the world's most important currency. The possibility that a primarily domestic crisis could quickly become global highlights the need for international cooperation. Former Fed Chairman Paul A. Volcker, who broke the back of high inflation in the early 1980s, told BusinessWeek on Mar. 19: "If you have a closely integrated world economy with free trade and free movements of capital, the logical complement of that is a global currency."