To address this question, we must bear in mind that our world is dominated far more by human stupidity than by AI.
The proliferation of megathreats -- each an element in the broader “polycrisis” -- confirms that our politics are too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to address even the most serious and obvious risks to our future. These include climate change, which will have huge economic costs; failed states, which will make waves of climate refugees even larger; and recurrent, virulent pandemics that could be even more economically damaging than Covid-19.
Making matters worse, dangerous geopolitical rivalries are evolving into new cold wars -- such as between the United States and China -- and into potentially explosive hot wars, like those in Ukraine and the Middle East. Around the world, rising income and wealth inequality, partly driven by hyper-globalization and labor-saving technologies, have triggered a backlash against liberal democracy, creating opportunities for populist, autocratic, and violent political movements.
Unsustainable levels of private and public debt threaten to precipitate debt and financial crises, and we may yet see a return of inflation and stagflationary negative aggregate supply shocks. The broader trend globally is toward protectionism, de-globalisation, de-coupling, and de-dollarisation.
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