Iceland Volcano: Indications The Magma Intrusion Has Stopped -- Iceland Met Office

Lava from the eruption 8 Feb. 2024. Photo: Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson/The Icelandic Institute of Natural History.

Too early to declare that there will be no eruption at this time

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Iceland Met Office

Updated 2 March at 19:10 UTC

At this point, the seismicity that began just before 16:00 UTC today has ceased. It is thus considered likely that the magma intrusion has stopped temporarily or is significantly diminished. However, minor deformation continues to be measured in the area, so it is too early to assert that the magma intrusion has ended and that there will not be an eruption at this time. When magma intrusions occur, deformation can be measured for several hours after the seismic activity stops.

The Icelandic Meteorological Office continues to monitor the area to observe whether the activity resumes in the next few hours, or if the magma intrusion has halted completely. It remains possible that magma could ascend to the surface, as has been observed in eruptions near Fagradalsfjall. 

Updated 2. March at 17:30 UTC

• An intense swarm of microseismic activity is occurring east of Sýlingarfell on the Reykjanes Peninsula.
• The seismicity indicates that magma movements have begun and that a fissure eruption is likely.
• The seismicity began at the southern end of the fissure that formed on 18 Dec. 2023.
• As of 17:30 UTC, it is apparent that the seismic activity has moved southwards in the direction of Hagafell.
• Real-time, GPS-based measurements show many fewer signs of deformation than before previous eruptions since December 2023. This could signify that less magma is on the move than before the previous three eruptions on Sundhnúkur crater row.
• At present, the depth of the seismicity does not indicate that magma is propagating to the surface.
• As of 17:30 UTC, the likely scenario is that the magma intrusion will not necessarily lead to a volcanic eruption. However, while the situation remains uncertain, an imminent fissure eruption cannot be ruled out.

A new hazard assessment map from IMO was published today and is valid until tomorrow (3. March 2024) at 17:00 UTC

A new hazard assessment map from IMO was published today and is valid until tomorrow (3. March 2024) at 17:00 UTC